Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 23.596264 25.941919 28.582371 31.811034 35.704171 40.317747 46.311478
2025-01-26 20.160108 23.174681 26.850090 31.789152 38.474240 47.588587 61.759962
2025-02-02 18.006193 21.373737 25.730130 32.038778 41.466810 56.147658 83.911620
2025-02-09 16.501795 20.078074 24.925870 32.395905 44.587192 66.203602 117.289403
2025-02-16 15.292057 18.964883 24.130316 32.506555 47.267739 76.895563 167.022074
2025-02-23 14.185335 17.839611 23.121328 32.028130 48.726538 86.085369 234.414911
2025-03-02 13.394401 17.065920 22.511489 32.051222 51.098473 99.130003 374.951386
2025-03-09 12.665911 16.305254 21.816035 31.777072 52.767614 111.927943 652.046550
2025-03-16 12.015605 15.600681 21.123867 31.377264 54.038052 125.055752 1385.537539
2025-03-23 11.460084 14.993497 20.522576 31.041723 55.365876 140.355711 6227.335053
2025-03-30 10.990197 14.481889 20.026553 30.826502 56.944734 159.503115 NaN
2025-04-06 10.478299 13.870578 19.308498 30.064286 56.868082 171.337921 NaN
2025-04-13 10.352268 13.863003 19.628025 31.495186 63.570041 240.578853 NaN
2025-04-20 9.975520 13.429329 19.164315 31.194063 65.034811 281.158099 NaN
2025-04-27 9.690864 13.127739 18.910426 31.318485 68.002513 355.920840 NaN
2025-05-04 9.451603 12.885613 18.742594 31.612318 71.774018 482.959754 NaN
2025-05-11 9.204291 12.615562 18.500686 31.697546 74.899836 664.810886 NaN
2025-05-18 8.908836 12.249796 18.053543 31.230326 75.683273 830.118391 NaN
2025-05-25 8.691061 12.004410 17.816665 31.248871 78.608166 1275.685270 NaN
2025-06-01 8.456240 11.718960 17.483890 30.984654 80.229265 1956.777584 NaN
2025-06-08 8.223506 11.427127 17.120929 30.600796 81.186995 3170.321157 NaN
2025-06-15 8.011628 11.162595 16.795741 30.278804 82.378131 6766.266095 NaN
2025-06-22 7.824245 10.932941 16.525724 30.072281 84.143866 52888.344218 NaN